Investment Articles

Institutional investors are a segment of the market consisting of traders who make large trades that qualify them for preferential treatment with a broker. This can include lower commissions and fewer regulations that dictate their market participation. Examples of institutional investors are pension funds and other types of large entities that buy quantities of shares in bulk amounts.

This type of investor can buy shares in many types of market products that include individual stocks, various types of bonds and specific commodities. However, an institutional investor many also decide on a type of index fund instead of individual securities. One type of index fund that is an option to a passive institutional investor is an exchange traded fund. This type of fund is traded on stock exchange has assets that include stocks, bonds and commodities. They track an index such as the S&P 500.

The use of an exchange traded fund is beneficial to the institutional investor because of the ability to be flexible. This type of market vehicle is often seen as an alternative to using futures. This type of product does not require the use of margins, a special account or documentation that may be necessary for other types of financial products. Using this type of investment allows for tracking a market segment or product without having to buy large quantities of an individual security.

Other types of institutional investor that are more active include hedge funds. Investments for this type of fund are convenient for active traders because they are traded in the same way as stocks. Funds offer flexibility that is not available with other types of index funds. Traders will also benefit from the use of exchange traded funds because they are not included in the short sale uptick rule.

This use of exchange traded funds or available in many markets such as those in countries in Asia. This will include the Singapore Exchange and the Hong Kong Exchange. Investors in these markets have access to funds that are not available in the European and American markets. However, the type of fund that is used for an investment vehicle will depend on various factors such as risk and return.

Traders that will take advantage of exchange traded funds are those that seek to have long-term growth of capital and active returns on their investment. They are a great way to track the investment return of a market segment or specific type of financial product.

Asian institutional investors face new challenges this year in a difficult market situation; visit our website to learn more.

This article focuses primarily on real-asset investments, and this section is designed to highlight some of portfolio planning characteristics of physical assets when considered as part of a well-diversified and balanced portfolio of investments, as well as some of the inherent risks to be considered when allocating investment capital to specific, niche investment sectors or projects.

Whilst real or hard-assets offer a number of significant benefits including reduced volatility, tangible asset values and the potential for superior investment performance that is not reliant on the performance of traditional financial investments, potential investors must give equal consideration to the potential for relative illiquidity, operational or management risks specific to the asset class, and of course counterparty risk exposure when investing in assets that require on-going expert management in order to maximise returns and minimise downside potential.

Portfolio Planning Advantages

Every asset class exhibits different characteristics when considered from the point of view of an Investor or Financial Planner, and Investors invariable choose to invest in specific assets in order to achieve specific goals such as risk mitigation, portfolio insurance, superior returns and a hedge against inflation or some other potential economic impact on the value and performance of their portfolio.

Here we look at some of the broad portfolio planning characteristics associated with a range of physical assets considered as alternative investments.

Capital Values

By their very nature, physical assets retain a disposal value throughout most economic circumstances, and whilst asset values will fluctuate from time to time, Investors allocate capital to hard-assets in order to underwrite the value of their portfolio and insure against the possibility of the values of listed financial assets falling sharply at any given moment. In fact, certain assets such as gold hold a ’safe-haven’ appeal, often rising in value when stock markets falls as Investors sell equities and buy gold.

Non-Correlated Returns

The fundamentals that support value growth and income associated with real-assets are often far removed from the fundamentals that support traditional investments. Often, alternatives share a direct negative correlation with the performance of equities and bonds, affording investors the opportunity to balance their portfolios and make gains when other portfolio components lose value or underperform. This strategy is sometimes referred to as portfolio insurance.

Diversification

Key to risk-mitigation in financial planning, diversification simply means spreading ones investment risk across abroad selection of holdings, reducing the likelihood that too many eggs are held in one proverbial basket. Diversifying an investment portfolio into a range of holding across different sectors and assets reduces the risk that poor performance in any one asset will have too big an impact on the portfolio as a whole.

Inflation Hedge

A number of alternative investment assets share a strong positive correlation with inflation, rising in value faster than the prevailing rate of inflation. This effectively mitigates the impact of inflation on the real value of investment portfolios. Pension funds and university endowments, along with insurance companies and other institutional investors buy into long-term investment assets such as farmland and forestry for this very reason.

Superior Returns

As detailed in the chart overleaf, many alternative investment assets have outperformed traditional investment assets over the long-term by some considerable margin. Whilst all sectors and strategies carry inherent risk, carefully selected and well-managed real-assets have been shown to generate superior investment returns for the Investor capable of tolerating short term price fluctuations and long-term investment horizons. Operational asset like property also generate income useful when other income assets like cash deposits underperform.

David Garner is Partner at DGC Asset Management, an alternative investments boutique specialising in property transactions in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

It is now a widely held belief that investing in stocks and other financial instruments in the traditional manner generates an investment return that is driven more by the latest piece of political rhetoric, or the most recent announcement of sovereign debt risk or unemployment figures from some far flung corner of the world, than by underlying company fundamentals like good management and a strong balance sheet. Aside from this inherent volatility, many investors also feel over-exposed to financial markets, especially those coming close to retirement that may have little time left to regain catastrophic losses in any one holding.

This shift in mind-set amongst investors has driven a huge growth in alternative investment management, with most financial institutions now offering investments that are organised and managed in such a way as to attempt to avoid volatility, or generate a return when markets fall, or some other such strategy.

Short Only
Short only funds bet on particular stocks losing value. Investors might buy into a short only fund if they felt particularly bearish (pessimistic) about the short term future of financial markets in general, and some may allocate capital to this strategy as a hedge against the impact of a general downturn.

Ultra-Short Bond Funds
This a type of investment fund that invests fixed-income bonds with very short-term maturities. Such a fund will usually invest in bonds with maturities of around 12 months. This strategy is designed to generate higher yields than traditional bond investing with less volatility.

Market Neutral
Market neutral is an alternative investment strategy designed to profit from growth and depreciation in the value of stocks. Whilst there is no finite technical definition for market neutral investing, for the most part, the overall strategy will involve taking long and short position in a stock (betting both for and against it) in order to maximise the return from making good stock selections and minimise the impact from broad market movements.

Absolute Return
The original name for hedge funds – absolute return investing involves a wide variety of alternative investment management techniques designed to capture financial gains during any and all market conditions. Absolute returns refer specifically to the return of the fund or investment over a given period of time i.e. the actual growth or depreciation. This differs from relative returns, which is a measure of investment returns when compared to similar investments or a sector.

Long / Short
A true mixed bag of investing, long short strategies involve taking long positions in one stock and betting against the value of another stock. In theory, as one sector or company makes a gain, there will be losses in competing sectors, and investment manager aim to identify such opportunities and capitalise on them. A broad example might be an investment manager who thinks oil prices will rise significantly based on some impending political or social crisis, so they might buy into oil company stocks and short stock of companies that rely heavily on oil as a key input in their business.

David Garner is Partner at DGC Asset Management, an alternative investments boutique specialising in property transactions in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

During the past five years, the global economic meltdown has spurred a spate of reorganizations of the investment portfolios of major institutional investors, many of which are now allocating more capital to real-asset alternative investments in an effort to reduce exposure to volatile financial markets, generate superior investment returns, and underwrite the value of their portfolios with the capital value of niche, income-generating property assets including forestry investments and farmland investment properties that are unlikely to depreciate in the long term.

The logic is sensible, and the likes of Yale University Endowment and their Harvard counterparts have all entered into long-term farmland and forestry investments as part of an overall refocusing of their investment strategy. Historically, land, gold and gems of varying types have been the only store of wealth, it is only since the introduction of fiat currencies that investors have sought to build cash gains, rather than aiming to build a sizable portfolio of land, property or other physical assets. Now, many smaller investors are taking heed of the big boys’ new strategy, and investigating the potential benefits and risks associated with investing in commercial timber properties and agricultural land assets.

Both of these assets classes exhibit characteristics that hold particular appeal during times of economic turmoil. Not only have assets in both sectors outperformed the majority of traditional investment instruments, but also, investment returns are driven by factors and variables that bear little impact from turmoil and volatility in traditional equity markets. Trees continue to grow to valuable timber whatever the economic weather, and increasing demand for resources from China, India and other fast-growing emerging economic drives up the price of sustainably sourced commercial timber and demand outstrips supply.

Capital growth and revenue from farmland assets are also supported by increasing demand. More people simply require more food, and improving diets in emerging market economies require greater inputs of grains, water and other inputs including fertilizers and fuel. All these factors combine to drive up commodity prices (and farm income) on an annual basis, and a lack of suitable land in the face of growing demand also supports long terms capital values.

So, on paper both farmland and forestry investment assets offer a number of advantages to the investors, but there are also a number of asset specific risks that must be acknowledged and understood before venturing into this type of asset as part of a diversified portfolio. Here are some of the headline risks associated with agricultural property investing:

Sectoral Risks

Both farmland and forestry investments display risk-potential that is specific to owning and operating agricultural assets in general. Income is derived from the production and harvest of commodities, be it timber, biomass, energy crops, grains or livestock. Revenues streams can be volatile, with growers subject to prevailing market conditions at the time of harvest. A dip in prices may cause an entire years’ revenue to be wiped out. Energy prices also factor in, especially in relation to farmland. Higher oil and gas prices mean higher farm input prices, further squeezing profit margins.

In the case of forestry investments, value can be stored on the stump during periods of decreased timber demand (and deflated timber prices), as property owners simply leave their trees to grow larger and more valuable until market conditions dictate a sensible time to harvest and sell. There are of course a number of other risk-factors associated with investing in real assets in the agricultural sector, but the major sectoral considerations are volatility and immediate demand for produce.

Location Risks

It is written, and I personally believe, that the vast majority of demand for resources such as energy, timber, food and other commodities will come from fast-growing emerging market economies. China alone exhibits economic growth on such a scale as to dwarf that of developed economies. When 3 billion people drive a car, live in a timber and concrete house, and eat a western diet, then demand for energy and raw materials will reach a level hitherto unseen.

It stands to reason then, that agricultural assets located in regions close enough to, or even inside emerging market economies are best-positioned to participate in the supply chain, and offer enhanced returns for investors due to low asset prices and high demand for end products. Whilst emerging markets offer the best opportunity for superior investment returns, these locations also carry risks not associated with developed nations. The potential for expropriation of land and property by unfriendly governments attempting to win votes poses a very real risk, and investor should carefully investigate the security of title for international investors before committing funds.

Asset Specific Risks

This is where experience and expertise comes in. farms and forests are niche assets and require careful expert management in order to mitigate risk and maximize upside potential. Flood, drought, disease, pests and soil degradation may all affect the income potential (and therefore capital value) of agricultural property assets. Growing commercial timber takes skill, knowledge and experience, and running a successful farm requires the same. My advice? Only ever choose to invest in agriculturally productive properties if you are able to access and retain expert operational partners capable of managing specific assets in the region you wish to invest.

In summary, it could be said that investing in farmland, or timberlands, offers the investor the opportunity to generate non-correlated returns without dramatically altering the overall risk profile of a portfolio. But there are risks, and the risks to be considered are not necessarily the kind of risks that investors are used to acknowledging or assessing. So seek the advice of an experienced consultant with a track record of delivering successful projects, and make sure that you are capable of withstanding long-term illiquidity, as both farmland and forestry investment assets are long-term investments, and investors must consider that they will ride out the bad times along with the good, in the hope to retaining control of some of the world’s most essential, productive assets.

David Garner is Partner at DGC Asset Management, an alternative investments boutique specialising in property transactions in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

Recent economic turmoil, played out over the past 5 years, has caused many investors to questions the logic of holding all of their assets in stock, bonds and cash. Whilst market conditions are positive, and equity values rise, all is well. But recent history has demonstrated that years of capital gains can be reversed in a matter of days, or even hours. Large investors such as pension funds, and smaller investors saving for retirement, are now seeking to allocate a portion of their capital to alternative investment assets that retain a capital value throughout any prevailing economic climate, and, for the long-term investor, capture capital growth driven by a rising demand for essential and luxury assets in line with a growing global population and rising wealth in emerging market economies like China, India and Latin America.

Here are 3 investment alternatives that share a low or negative correlation with the performance of shares, and might, for many investors, offer a solution to the question of portfolio diversification and risk-management.

1. Gold investment

Gold has long been viewed as a safe, stable asset that provides insurance against general market volatility. When equity values fall, gold values rise as investors sell their shares and buy into a ’safe haven’ investment like gold. Thus, holding gold as part of a diversified portfolio creates growth when other assets lose value, effectively creating a balance and countermeasure to stock market exposure during a downturn market. Gold has also outperformed most other assets, gaining almost 30% per year for the past five years.

2. Forestry investments

Trees are becoming ever-more popular alternative investment assets. Well-managed commercial timber plantations derive financial returns from the biological growth of trees into valuable timber and other commodities which can be harvested for income. As trees continue to grow regardless of the economy, forestry investments in key regions where trees grow quickly, and where demand for timber is highest (read emerging markets), can produce returns of between 10% and 20% p.a. over a sustained investment period of 10 or 20 years. There are a number of unique risks associated with this alternative property investment, and Investors should partner with an advisor with a track record and experience of identifying, measuring and delivering successful forestry investment projects.

3. Farmland investments

Agricultural land is in worryingly short supply, and forms the basis of all agriculture and food production. Without enough suitable land to grow crops and raise livestock, demand for food outweighs supply and farmland values rise as the true value of the assets class becomes apparent. Those in control of food-producing land may in fact be in control of the world’s most valuable asset in 10 or 20 years’ time. As the global population has grown so quickly over the past 100 years, the amount of suitable arable land per person had halved, and changing diets in advancing economies require the input of more resources to grow food, creating a double-whammy of demand. Farmland investments therefore capture long-term capital growth driven by population growth and rising levels of wealth in emerging markets like China and India. There are a host of risks associated with agricultural land investment and again, investors should seek out the advice of a consultant with a track record and experience of identifying, measuring and delivering successful farmland investment projects.

In summary, all of these assets are likely to grow in value as demand continues to grow, whilst supplies remain fundamentally limited, and investors able to find a suitable entry into any of these alternative asset classes could generate superior investment returns, provided they are prepared to hold the asset over extended period of time and can tolerate the illiquidity associated with tangible, physical assets.

David Garner is Partner at DGC Asset Management, an alternative investments boutique specialising in property transactions in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

Most investment strategies pitch somewhere upon the continuum between a high risk / high return approach on the one end and a low risk / low return approach on the other. The problem with pursuing high investment returns, is that the capital value of investments may decrease in the short term before they increase again. The problem with conservative low-return investments is that the real value of capital may over time decrease due to inflation.

The art of investing lies in finding the approach that suits you personally best. One should on the one hand try to maximise the return on capital, but at a risk level that is acceptable to you. The question is what is regarded as acceptable risk and, is the acceptability a constant factor that stays the same under any circumstances? The answer is no. More risk is acceptable under certain circumstances, but before these circumstances are discussed, it is necessary to discuss the following terms that will be used, that are often confused:

Saving

Saving is the action of putting money aside. It means that money is not spend, but is kept at the owners disposal.

Investing

Investing means that money is handed over to a third party for purchasing assets with the purpose of long term investment growth. Investors transfer the their funds with the intention that financial assets like shares and bonds or hard assets like diamonds are bought. Investing does not mean to hand money over to dubious schemes.

Gambling

To gamble is normally understood as “to play a game for money or other stakes” like putting money on a roulette wheel or buying a lotto ticket. It can also mean to buy a share that you know nothing about or investing in a scheme you don’t understand.

Marketers of illegal schemes use the word “investing” to lure people to hand their money over to them. Initially, when “investors” receive high payouts, they think the scheme is the best investment thinkable. The fact that it has nothing to do with investment, only dawns on them when they lost all their money and it is to late to recover anything.

Speculation

Speculation means that a calculated risk are taken to make money on a relatively short term. One may for instance buy property with the purpose to sell it in a year or two at a higher price. The price of the property may not rise, but at least you have done sufficient homework to make sure that there is a high probability that it will rise.

Now that we are sure about the terms, we can look at the circumstances under which a higher risk may be appropriate.

Surplus income: The higher your surplus income, the higher the risk you should be able to handle in investing money.
Frequency of investment To invest a certain amount regularly, holds less risk than to invest a single amount at once.
Amount: If the amount you want to invest, is a small percentage of your total capital, you can accept greater risk.
Term: Greater risk can be handled with longer investment terms. Young people can therefore accept greater risk, but if the term of their financial objectives is shorter, investment portfolios should be structured less risky.
Income: If you receive an income from your investment, it should be structured more conservative with less risk. If you are not receiving an income at the moment, but plan to do so in future, you can decide to pursue a higher return till you need the income. When this happens, the investment could be restructured to reflect the new situation.
Investment experience: Investors with little investment experience should be more wary against risk than investors with lots of experience in this regard.
Dependants: Investors with more dependents should be more wary towards risk than those with few dependants.
Health: Healthy investors can handle more risk than unhealthy investors.
Diversification: An investor that already has a well diversified investment portfolio, can accept greater risk with new investments than investors with undiversified portfolios.
Timing: Share investments are normally more risky than some other investments. Investment risk can however be reduced if shares are bought when the economic cycle is on it’s lowest. Risk can also be lowered if investors buy shares of strong well established companies with little debt and healthy balance sheets.
Emotional tolerance:Some people loves the adrenaline rush in going for high returns, with no regard to the risk. They are emotionally capable of doing it this way. For other, it is a nightmare if their investment fall by a single percentage point. One should therefore know how you will respond to sudden capital depreciation.

Summary

One’s view on risk forms an extremely important element in investment planning. It is as irresponsible to take unnecessary risks as it is to be satisfied with a low return on your money. However, to pursue higher return, goes with the responsibility to research the investment opportunity thoroughly before parting with your money.

Dr. Manus J. Moolman is the CEO of My Wealth and has done extensive research on investing strategies. My Wealth is dedicated to advising anyone from average every people to professionals to choose the best investment for their risk profile.

Want to contact us? Visit our website at: http://www.myebroker.info/

CASH- The benefits and risks

Who can benefit?

Every investor who wishes to have an understanding of a primary asset class.

What is it?

Cash is generally referred to as money at call. That is, you may access your funds quickly. Such funds are held in savings and cheque accounts through banks and other financial institutuions. The definition of cash also generally includes fixed term investments of less than one year. This would include some term deposits and bank bills. The basic attributes of cash is that it pays a predetermined rate of interest, the capital is stable and is liquid or near liquid. Term deposits may often be cashed in advance of the maturity date with the payment of penalty interest.

What are the benefits?

Cash is considered to be a “safe” investment, although how safe it is depends on the credit worthiness of the institution of where it is held. Depending on the country, bank deposits are not generally guaranteed by the government and there have been recent examples of cash investments being lost.

Otherwise, the capital does not fluctuate in value, as do other asset classes. The return can fluctuate and generally moves up or down in relation to the rates set by the central bank, or in America, the Federal Reserve.

Cash is necessary to fund your immediate and short-term expenditure. It is essential to match your investments with your expenditure requirements. Although growth assets such as property and shares have higher returns in the long-term you would not fund the purchase of a new car in six months’ time by investing in shares today.

Cash is the ideal medium to store funds while you are waiting for a long-term investment opportunity to appear. For example, you may hold cash if you are expecting a rise in interest rates before investing in long-term bonds.

Any downside?

Cash may appear to be a low risk investment however it may be very risky in that your investment and lifestyle objectives may not be realized. The long-term return of cash is only slightly higher than inflation (Consumer Price Index) and after taking into account your marginal tax rate, the return may be less than inflation.

Therefore cash is a poor hedge against the loss of purchasing power through inflation. Most people require some growth in their investments to reach their goals and this can only be achieved by investing some funds in shares and property as well as cash and fixed interest. Nevertheless, cash does help to smooth out the returns in a balanced portfolio.

It is very important to understand the concept of inflation to appreciate how the low return of a cash based investment can seriously impact on your lifestyle in the long-term. This is best show by the “rule of 72″.

The “rule of 72″ is a simple calculation of how long prices will double if you know the long term inflation rate. You simply divide the inflation rate into 72. For example, if inflation is 5% then prices will double every 14.4 years (72/5).

The “rule of 72′ also shows how long it will take for your investment to double given a long- term investment return. For example, if the after tax return of your cash investment is 3% then your investment will not double in value for 24 years (72/3).

Clearly with the examples shown a low yielding cash investment can rapidly fall in real value if the after tax return is not at least as great as inflation. The scenario is even worse if you must take capital out to fund your cost of living.

This is an amended excerpt from Financial Planning A to Z, to be published in late 2012. Refer my website www.barrylizmore.com.au for more details. Articles of a similar nature will be posted at the start of each week.

It’s been a tough time for investors lately with the world’s major sharemarkets struggling to produce any meaningful capital gain over the past five years.

The disappointment, though, goes deeper: since the start of this century the US sharemarket, measured by the S&P 500 Index, has fallen by 13 per cent, and that’s before taking into account the erosion in value caused by inflation over that time.

In contrast to shares, world bonds have performed spectacularly well (up over 100 per cent) since 2000. The yawning gap in returns between bonds and shares doesn’t depend on the starting point being 2000 either; you have to use more than two decades worth of (US) data before you can show that shares have delivered higher returns than bonds.

It’s perhaps not surprising then that investors have shifted some of their funds away from shares and into bonds. According to data from over 40 countries compiled by the Association of US Investment Companies, investors have reduced their allocation to shares from almost 50 per cent at the end of 2006, to 39 per cent by the end of September 2011, and upped their allocation to bonds and money market investments.

In making the shift, of course, they have contributed to the downward pressure on shares prices and helped push up bonds.

There are at least three reasons behind many of world’s savers shifting from shares to bonds over the past five or more years:

The obvious one is that bonds have simply delivered better returns than shares – in hindsight the shift in funds has been a no-brainer. But could bonds turn from being a no-brainer to being a genuinely stupid investment over the next 10 years?

Another compelling reason for the shift to bonds is simply a flight to safety. Bonds traditionally offer much greater security over the capital value of an investor’s funds in exchange for a lower return than is the case for shares. Given the huge uncertainty that has dogged financial markets for much of the past five years it’s small wonder that investors have withdrawn to the relative safety of bonds. As the turmoil in financial markets fades investors may be inclined to take on more risk and nudge their way back into shares.

A third reason for the shift to bonds may be more fundamental. The demographic bulge in the number of people hitting retirement is likely to see a sustained shift to more conservative investment mandates. As this large age cohort retires their focus will be on the security of their capital rather than the returns they can get from that capital. If the financial crisis has taught us anything it is that returns that look too good to be true, too often are. For New Zealanders that message was repeated loudly by the collapse of finance companies that had lured many retired folk to invest in dubious debentures by offering unsustainably high interest rates.

The first two reasons above rely heavily on hindsight, something that investors find very difficult to shrug off. Investors are told time and again that over the long run shares will produce higher returns than bonds; the basic rationale being that shares carry more risk and therefore investors seek higher returns.

Well, as we’ve seen that has not been the case for the past decade or more, which raises the question: how long is the long term? For a 65-year-old, 10 years may be all the time he’s got left, whereas a 25-year-old can afford to hang on for long-term relative returns to prevail – shares outperforming bonds.

Interestingly, a major KiwiSaver provider has argued that too many Kiwi savers will miss out on investment returns by spending the rest of their working life in the conservative funds they have been defaulted to. The argument rests on these conservative funds returning less than more aggressive share-oriented funds over the longer term.

While past returns are not necessarily a good guide to future returns, the experience of the past two decades surely tell not to make sweeping assumptions about future relative returns. KiwiSaver members who have allowed themselves to be allocated to relatively conservative default funds have done pretty well over the past four years and it would be foolhardy for the Government, or a KiwiSaver provider for that matter, to somehow impose their conviction about future relative returns upon lethargic KiwiSaver members, or indeed presume to know what’s best for individual investors.

Bond yields are historically very low in most, though certainly not all, developed economies. The scope for them to go lower and thus keep delivering the significant capital gains they have done over the past two decades or so is getting pretty slim. Furthermore, if the liquidity central banks have been pumping into their economies finally generates economic lift-off, higher inflation is likely to follow, and that would dent future bond returns. Essentially central banks are trying to engineer an economic recovery by lowering the returns bond investors get in favour of higher returns for businesses taking on debt to expand their business or leverage their existing business – either way cheaper credit should translate into higher share returns eventually.

It would be a pity to see investors once again driven by hindsight to desert an asset class (in this case shares) as it passes through the bottom of its returns cycle and plump for bonds as they pass through the peak of their cycle. The shift back to shares delivering higher returns than bonds will happen – if only someone would tell us when!

Gareth Morgan Investments is an Investment Management company servicing clients who want personal and transparent management of their investments. We manage investment portfolios for individuals and institutions, and we are a KiwiSaver and Superannuation scheme provider.

Visit us at: Gareth Morgan Investments

Am I wasting my money investing when the market is so bad?

This is a common concern you hear from people that have been salary sacrificing (investing) into superannuation in a declining share market. They see contributions being taken from their salary each week but their superannuation balance (investment) is stagnant or even going down. Should they stop investing or put it in cash?

Dollar cost averaging.

The advantage of ongoing salary sacrifice is that you are “dollar cost averaging” into the share market. By this we mean that you are investing the same amount into the share market on a periodic basis however if the share market is declining you are actual getting more for your money, more units or shares, which will recover in value if they are quality assets.

Dollar cost averaging does require a disciplined approach. You must invest the same amount at the same time of the month regardless of whether the share market has gone up or down. If the share market has gone up you were able to have purchased some assets at a lower price but the if the share market goes down you are now able to get more quality assets at an even better price!

Buy when shares are on sale.

A good example is if you are shopping for a new suit or dress. You can go to your favourite store before Christmas and pay full price or wait until the Boxing Day sales and get the same suit or dress for half price. It is the identical article of clothing but it is now on sale.

This is the same as buying quality assets when investing during times of uncertainty and volatility. You are getting blue chip shares on sale. Values do return to quality assets.

The share market can move quickly!

One final point about being out of the share market at the wrong time. The market can move a large amount in a single day. Missing out on just a handful of these significant trading days can have a large impact on investment returns. Some of the biggest trading days in the Australian share market are listed below:

6.71% – 2 Jan 2000, 6.10% – 29 Oct 1997, 5.76% – 13 Nov 1987, 5.5% – 25 Nov 2008

There is no bell that rings at the bottom of the market. Missing the biggest half dozen “up days” in a year makes a significant impact on your investment return for that year.

This is a reprinted summary from an article in http://www.barrylizmore.com.au

Barry Lizmore is a financial planner in Melbourne Australia and is a lecturer in financial planning at Deakin University. I have recently written a book, “Take Control of Your Money” which explains the financial planning process and answers questions such as: What is financial planning? What can a financial planner do for me and how much can I do for myself? What questions should I ask a financial planner? How much should advice cost me and how do I know if I am getting good advice? How can I determine my lifestyle and financial goals? How can I reduce risk?

My educational web site which includes information on my book is http://www.barrylizmore.com.au

Even though stock markets are generally having a bad time of it at the moment, as an investor there is no need to panic unduly. There are several strategies you can adopt to ease the pain and to protect your portfolio in the current environment. Let’s start with a little perspective on the situation.

At the start of 2012, it’s worth looking back at 2011. There was the major natural catastrophe in Japan for starters. Then there were problems in Greece and other sovereign European states, culminating in threats to the Eurozone as well as the Euro itself – plus of course the downgrading of the US credit rating. There was no doubt that the media seemed to revel in the bad news and as bad news sells, this is sure to continue.

Certainly investors voted with their feet, as they staged the biggest retreat from the stock market in 20 years. According to the latest figures from the Investment Management Association, private investors pulled a record £864m from investment funds in November, bigger than the retreat from the crisis of 2008.

But what effect did all these problems actually have on the markets? Well, in Europe, unsurprisingly most markets ended down for the year. The FTSE 100 lost 5.6 percent, whilst Germany’s DAX lost 14.7 percent. Interestingly, Far East and Emerging Markets also suffered, roughly along the lines of Europe. Overall Emerging Markets were down 14.5%, Japan was down 14.1% and Pacific ex Japan lost 10.9% – so simply avoiding European equities was not a solution.

However, as reported in the Guardian, in the US, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed 2011 just a fraction of a point below where it started the year. The S&P closed at 1,257.60, compared to 1,257.64 at the end of 2010. So its loss for the year was just 0.04 point. The Dow was up 5.5 percent for the year, whilst the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.8 percent.

So the US is not looking in too bad a shape and there are encouraging trends there as well, with some improvements on the unemployment and housing market fronts. Obviously there is an election later this year so the issues of debt and deficit are likely to be put on hold until 2013, but there are at least glimmers of hope.

Away from equities, bonds did well in 2011 which is somewhat surprising as they usually do badly in times of rising inflation. Long term gilts (over 15 years) returned 24.3%, index-linked gilts returned 15.4% and all gilts on average returned 14.2%. Corporate bonds which are normally riskier than gilts returned 7.1%. Elsewhere, gold returned 25.3%.

Because of this, well diversified investors will have been cushioned from the fall in equities via their holdings of gilts, bonds and other asset classes.

So how do you keep your portfolio ticking over in these difficult times?

Well, firstly, by playing a long-game. As investors in equities know, the whole process is a long-term game, and losses are only crystallised once the funds are eventually sold. So don’t panic – and hold onto your equities.

Secondly, you should ensure your portfolio is diversified. If you have a well-diversified spread across a range of asset classes, it is more than likely that if one area goes down, other asset classes should help provide protection.

Thirdly, you should look to rebalance your portfolio. As 2011 was a fairly volatile time for markets, it is likely that the portfolios of most investors are somewhat skewed, and will need rebalancing to get back in line with their model asset allocation. This might mean selling some gilts or bonds that performed well last year, to get their portfolios back in line.

Fourthly, you should consider a focus on income. Higher yielding stocks tend to outperform low yielding stocks over the long term and can contribute towards total returns if the dividends are reinvested. In fact 2011 was a not a bad year if you invested in good quality, long-term, dividend-paying companies. According to Capita Registrars, 2011 was a record year for dividend pay-outs, with investors in UK companies getting a £67.8bn bonanza – up 19.4% on 2010. Record dividends therefore provided a real bright spot for investors in an otherwise gloomy world.

Finally, if you are still looking to invest but are a little nervous, you should consider “pound cost averaging” – the process where you invest amounts on a regular ongoing basis rather than as a lump sum. This process helps to smooth out your investment returns, as when share prices are low you end up buying more shares – but obviously fewer when the price is high. So when the market is depressed, you benefit by buying more shares, which will be good news when the stock markets rise again.

So the picture for 2012 may still look gloomy but it should be borne in mind that the markets have priced in a good deal of the problems already. Whilst the short-term could remain tough, particularly if something dramatic happens, like Greece defaulting for example, it should be remembered that on a historical price/earnings (P/E) basis, equities are now undervalued. So as mentioned above, holding on for the medium to long term would seem to be the sensible option.

A review of your portfolio also makes sense at a time like this, so if you haven’t done so already, contact your local independent financial adviser, who will be able to help you with an appraisal of your overall financial objectives and strategy.

Chris Flood, MA (Oxon), MBA, is a marketing and management consultant based in Bristol UK. He writes articles on investments and financial planning as well as other subjects. For a review of your investment portfolio, please go to http://www.kelland-gloucester.com/investment-management.asp

Further information about Kellands Gloucester and its services can be found at http://www.kelland-gloucester.com