The $32 billion Harvard University Endowment Fund, which generated a return of 21.4% in the fiscal year 2011, has 23% of its investments held in real-assets, which according the CEO of Harvard Management Company; Jane Mendillo, has been a significant contributor to the fund outperforming its benchmark over the last decade by 270 basis points per year, adding roughly $15 billion of value versus what would have been earned by a more traditional portfolio. The University of Notre Dame also holds a significant proportion of its portfolio in real-assets (17.5%), and delivered a return of 21.5% in 2011. The Yale University Endowment Fund delivered a return of 21.9% in 2011, and holds 29% of its portfolio in real-assets, including real estate and natural resources.
This article seeks to review the investment performance of a range of real-assets, compare that performance to the performance of UK equities, and establish the effect of real-assets on the performance of investment portfolios. In particular, this report focuses on the investment performance and impact of farmland, forestry, gold and fine wine. The following analysis suggests that the low correlation of real-assets with other asset classes means that such investments, whilst potentially illiquid, offer an opportunity to reduce risk and volatility whilst also carrying significant potential to generate superior returns.
The following chart demonstrates the compound annual growth rate associated with a range of asset classes over a range of timeframes assuming a single investment made at the beginning of each measured period and ending at the end of 2011. In the case of the IPD UK Forestry Index and IPD Rural investment Index, data was only available until the end of 2010, however anecdotal evidence suggests that performance throughout 2011 has continued at a similar pace and therefore we feel this still offers a true and fair comparison with the equity indices.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
FTSE 100
Gold
UK Farmland
UK Forestry
US Farmland
US Forestry
Fine Wine
FTSE All Share
Cash
5 year
-2.2%
19.4%
12.0%
17.7%
11.9%
4.7%
10.7%
-2.4%
3.8%
10 year
0.7%
18.7%
10.0%
10.4%
14.7%
7.5%
11.7%
1.3%
4.1%
15 year
6.2%
9.9%
-
-
11.9%
7.2%
-
2.4%
4.4%
20 year
6.2%
7.6%
-
6.3%
11.0%
10.1%
-
4.5%
4.8%
This chart tells us that, broadly speaking, real-assets have outperformed UK equity indices and cash over every period considered. Interestingly, equities is the only asset class examined that generates a financial loss over any given period, indicating a higher degree of volatility than its real-asset counterparts. The timing of this analysis plays some part in forming that conclusion due the impact of the recent financial crisis being included in the 5-year performance data. It is likely then that holding real-asset investment alternatives such as farmland, forestry investments, gold and fine wine throughout a range of timelines will have improved portfolio performance without dramatically altering – and in some cases improving – the overall risk profile.
It should be noted that, in the case of the FTSE 100 and FTSE All Share Indices, these numbers offer only a broad view of the performance of an investment in an index-linked investment vehicle, and do not take into account the upside and downside potential of managing a basket of equities and relying to an extent on picking specific stocks in the hope of ‘beating the market’. Nor does it take into account dividend income which could be re-invested, effectively compounding returns and losses. Investment Managers and Investors might feel they are able to outperform the Index through careful stock-picking and active trading/management, although many studies have shown that, over the long-term, professionally managed equities perform only marginally better than the Index in general, and Investors remain exposed to the likelihood or otherwise that individual investment managers will perform consistently throughout the entire term of an investment.
In this report we have compared the investment performance of a range of asset classes including UK equities, farmland, forestry, fine wine and gold bullion. We have also analysed the effect of portfolio diversification through reducing equity exposure and acquiring real-assets. This report has shown:
Real-assets may contribute substantially to traditional stock portfolios
Real-assets have outperformed UK equities by some considerable margin over every timeframe measured
Exposure to real-assets adds meaningful risk reduction, especially during periods of underperformance or volatility in traditional financial assets
It is clear then that diversification achieved through reducing equity exposure and allocating capital to real-assets has, in the cases reviewed in the this report, improved the overall performance of investment portfolios and reduced risk (considered as volatility) between 2001 and 2011, effectively optimising portfolio performance.
One issue with this basic analysis would be a lack of access to investable projects or assets that give smaller Investors direct exposure to the fundamental characteristics that drive returns in the real asset space. Often, farms and woodlands are too large and expensive for single Investors to purchase, and the specific expertise required to improve, develop and operate those assets is also expensive and hard to come by. It is therefore difficult for Investors to allocate smaller sums of capital to these assets outside of restrictive and often expensive and opaque collective funds. Whilst some funds do offer limited access to certain assets, the structure of such arrangements often hamper asset selection, development and management to such an extent as to deliver much smaller returns than direct investments, as revenue is often absorbed into the cost of the structure and on-going management.
Thios article is an excerpt from a report by David Garner is Partner, Investment Partner at DGC Asset Management, an alternative investments boutique specialising in property transactions in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors. To download the full report, please visit the DGC Asset Management website.