Choosing an asset allocation, or the mix of stocks, bonds and cash in a portfolio, is the most important decision that you’ll face as an investor. A study by Ibbotson Associates concluded that asset allocation decisions determine about 100 percent of investment performance for those who follow a low-cost, long-term investing strategy. Similarly, according to a Dalbar and Associates study, many investors underperform the market because they deviate from their asset allocation plan during market downturns. Investors who want to maximize their long-term investment returns must develop a risk-appropriate asset allocation plan that they can stick with in good times and bad.
Asset Allocation Step 1: Evaluate Your Risk Profile
A reliable, long-term asset allocation plan starts with a thorough understanding of your risk profile. It’s helpful to think of your risk profile in two parts: your risk capacity, or the degree of portfolio volatility that you can absorb financially, and your risk attitude, or your emotional tolerance for risk.
Risk capacity is influenced by factors like income and net worth, but its largest determinant is time horizon. Early in life, when retirement is far off, your future earning potential can be thought of as a sizable bond, allowing you to allocate the majority of your retirement portfolio to more volatile equity investments. As you grow older and your future earning potential decreases, it’s important to replace those bond-like expected earnings with a higher percentage of bonds in your portfolio. By the time you retire, most of your investments should be in bonds in order to provide a reliable, low-volatility source of income.
Risk attitude is more difficult to quantify than risk capacity, especially for first-time investors who haven’t experienced difficult market conditions. Many investors make the mistake of failing to understand their risk attitude until a market downturn occurs. This usually leads to selling equity investments at the worst time (the bottom of the market), only to miss out on a subsequent market rebound. To help avoid this phenomenon, investors can use resources like risk questionnaires and historical performance charts to help find a stock/bond mix with an emotionally acceptable level of volatility. These tools are far from perfect, however, so when in doubt, it’s best to err on the side of conservatism.
Generally speaking, your most conservative risk dimension (capacity or attitude) should determine your portfolio’s equity/bond split. For example, if you have the risk capacity to handle a portfolio of 80% equities, but can only stomach the volatility of a 70% equity portfolio, you should choose the more conservative allocation. Developing a plan that you can stick with in good times and bad is much more important than maximizing your expected return.
Asset Allocation Step 2: Break Down Equities and Bonds
Once you’ve settled on a risk-appropriate stock/bond mix, you can think about subdividing the equity and fixed income portions of your portfolio. The key to this part of the asset allocation process is finding a suitable tradeoff between simplicity and maximum expected return.
Modern Portfolio Theory tells us that by adding volatile asset classes that don’t move in lockstep with the rest of our investments, we can increase our portfolio’s risk-adjusted return. Based on that principle, consider adding international stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to your equity portfolio. Companies outside of the US represent more than half of the value of global equity markets, and investors have historically been compensated for the risks that accompany international investing. Likewise, REITs offer a great diversification benefit and give investors unique exposure to the commercial real estate market.
Within your US and international stock allocation, you may also want to boost your exposure to small company and value investments, as investors have historically been compensated for the risks inherent in these investing styles. If you’re not familiar with the arguments for overweighting these equity segments, however, you should probably steer clear of them in favor of simplicity.
To expand your fixed income allocation beyond a broad sampling of the US Bond Market, consider adding Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and municipal bonds. TIPS are unique because, unlike traditional bonds, their principal and interest payments adjust with inflation, so they offer a government-guaranteed rate of return above inflation when held to maturity. Municipal bonds are appropriate for investors in high tax brackets with taxable investment accounts, as the interest from these bonds is generally tax-exempt in the issuing state and at the federal level.
Portfolios can be sliced and diced in any number of ways, but a more complex portfolio is not necessarily a better one. Wise investors understand that their investing success will largely be determined by their ability to stick with their asset allocation plan, and for that reason, they err on the side of simplicity.
Asset Allocation Step 3: Implement Your Plan
Once you’ve broken down your portfolio into target percentages, all that remains is to implement your asset allocation plan. With literally thousands of funds to choose from, it’s best to narrow down the field by focusing on one factor that you can control: investing costs.
First, you can minimize the impact of many fees, expenses and taxes by investing in low-cost index funds and ETFs. If your workplace retirement account has limited choices, simply pick the lowest cost funds that fill a position in your asset allocation plan. Secondly, pay close attention to all applicable fees and commissions prior to doing business with a brokerage firm or mutual fund company. IRAs and other investment accounts are extremely portable, so there’s no good reason to stick with a high-commission broker. Finally, maximize your portfolio’s after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient asset classes (e.g., REITs, Bonds) in tax-sheltered accounts.
Once you’ve settled on specific investment choices, help yourself stay on track by formally documenting your asset allocation plan in an Investment Policy Statement (IPS). This document provides an organized framework for recording your investing goals, philosophy and target allocation so that you can help yourself resist the temptation to stray from your long-term strategy. The ideal time to draft an IPS is while the rationale for your asset allocation decision is fresh in your mind.
Conclusion
More than any other factor, your ability to develop and implement a risk-appropriate asset allocation plan will determine your investing success. By thoroughly evaluating your investing risk profile, choosing an appropriate level of portfolio complexity, and picking low-cost investments, you’ve taken a giant step toward your long-term investment goals.
George Watkins is President of West Wind Wealth Management, an independent, SEC-registered investment advisory firm that specializes in index fund and ETF portfolios. A former nuclear-trained Naval Officer, George has a BS in Economics from Duke University and an MBA from Harvard Business School. To receive a free asset allocation recommendation or a personalized portfolio recommendation for as little as $19, visit http://www.invest-it-yourself.com.